How will Bass or Caruso win? Latino vote, liberal unity, voter rage, rain all factors? All these? Who knows. I’m betting the Democrats will win back the Latino vote in 2016 and they will do that by going to the left and focusing on the issues.
The Republicans will get the Latino vote with more of it.
The Democrats will get the African American vote. They probably can get at least a little bit of that.
The Republicans will get the white votes, especially in middle and western states.
I think that the Democrats will do better at getting their votes out than the Republicans are getting their votes in. Why? Because they have won their support by winning at the ballot box. The Republicans don’t give that up easily. That is what the Obama years were all about.
That makes it very, very easy to get people to vote. But it is almost impossible to turn out the vote for a party that doesn’t win by getting the votes. That is what the Democrats can do in the 2016 election, win the 2012 vote. Win it like Nixon did in 1972 or like Reagan did in 1980.
Now, the GOP will do that with Latinos, the African American vote, and white votes.
The Democrats will do what in the history of American politics (at least since 1860) the Democrats have done — win by getting enough votes in. The Democrats have been doing that in every election since the start of the Civil War.
But what they have not been doing is winning by getting as many votes as possible.
It seems this election will be the first time that anyone in modern times has done that.
The Republicans didn’t win by getting the fewest number of votes they could. They won by winning by getting the most number of votes they could get.
The Republicans won by running on the idea that the Democratic Party was “socialist” and a “big government” party. They ran on the idea that the Democratic Party was responsible for all that “social” ills that were going on in America.
A person can get the most votes they can. But a party can